Issue #1,119 | Inside the Business of CAD | 24 January 2022
Stan Przybylinski: In your WorldCAD Access blog post of 2019 [worldcadaccess.com/blog/2019/10/heppelmann-and-hirschtick-on-ptcs-acquisition-of-onshape.html], you cited McKinsey’s estimates used by PTC: “SaaS-based CAD market would grow more than 35% year-over-year and represent nearly 20% of the total CAD market in five years.”
[McKinsey is consulting firm to large corporations. SaaS is “software as a service” via subscriptions.]
That was in 2019, and now it is 2+ years later. What do you think about this estimate today?
Ralph Grabowski: I didn’t believe it at the time, and I don’t believe it now.
The CEOs of PTC have been known for making extravagant claims. In this case, I wonder if the CEO was justifying the purchase of Onshape, while (I think) hoping secretly it would not prove to be a costly mistake.
Getting full CAD on the cloud has proved elusive, even for a hardcore cloud promoter like Autodesk, which has been plugging away at the problem for a decade now, as has Dassault with its 14-year (and counting) failure to put Solidworks on the cloud. PTC will find the same,
Indeed, PTC admitted as much when it spent (perhaps) around $700 million (purchase price + assumption of debt, my estimate) on Onshape, saying paying for an acquisition was quicker and cheaper than writing the code on its own. So think how much it might have cost to write cloudCAD from scratch. But now it faces the problem of delivering on its promise of Onshape-ifying Creo with 100% of functions of the desktop version. It ain't gonna happen.
Siemens, Hexagon, and mid-tier CAD vendors (Bentley, Bricsys, Graebert, et al) know better. Their solution is hybrid: hard-core CAD on the desktop with ancillary activities on the cloud where it make sense, such as collaboration and remote drawing access.
Mr Przybylinski: I second all of those emotions. I think that McKinsey does not know enough about CAD authoring tools to understand how they are different.
This next article illustrated their feelings about enterprise software more broadly: “The next software disruption: How vendors must adapt to a new era. Over the turbulent past decade, many legacy software players proved to be remarkably resilient. Now they must adopt a new strategic playbook to weather the different challenges ahead.” [Source.]
Mr Grabowski: I feel that McKinsey suffers from a conflict of interest: it needs change to occur so that it can charge firms to advise them in how to navigate and implement the upcoming changes predicted by McKinsey. By proactively announcing that inevitable change is coming for pretty much darn sure, they prime the pump for lucrative contacts.
Mr Przybylinski: I agree. While we at CIMdata are known for doing market research in this space, we often don't get asked to do things like this, because we are normally more conservative. Plus, we do not have the cachet of “McKinsey” in a press release.
[Stan Przybylinski is the vice president of PLM market research firm CIMdata. He is the former manager of market and competitive intelligence at Dassault Systèmes.]
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And in Other News
Siemens Digital Industries Software updates Simcenter 3D 2022.1:
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Increased support for turbomachinery modeling
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Dedicated drop test for handheld devices
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Tighter integration with NX Design
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New acoustic method that is up to 10x faster than standard methods
The free trial is available from plm.automation.siemens.com/global/en/products/simcenter/simcenter-3d.html.
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Dassault Systemes lost the prize for holding the first post-covid in-person CAD user conference, after abruptly cancelling the in-person part for health reasons. You can still watch 3DExperience World (nee Solidworks World) on your computer-connected big screen tv from the comfort of your comfy armchair February 6 - 9 after registering at 3dexperienceworld.com/overview.
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Open Design Alliance shipped the initial release of its open STEP software development kit in January. The SDK handles CIS/2 schemas, accesses EXPRESS metadata, and supports the following application protocols:
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AP203 (configuration-controlled design)
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AP214 (automotive design)
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AP238 (STEP-NC integrated CNC)
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AP242 (managed model-based 3D engineering)
To come later this year: advanced creation, visualization, and .NET support. upFront.eZine wrote about the ODA’s plans in issue #111.
The SDK is free to ODA members. opendesign.com/products/step
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BETA CAE Systems updates its suite of analysis software to v22.1.0:
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KOMVOS upgraded as a direct DM-process executor
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Boosted graphics performance of ANSA and META
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Extended VR/AR capabilities
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Faster solution times in EPILYSIS
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New toolbars in META
Details here: beta-cae.com/news/20211227_announcement_suite_22.1.0.htm
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LEDAS reports that for the third year in a row its revenues increased by 15%. The software consulting company specializes in solving tough problems in CAD, BIM, and CAM. ledas.com
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IntelliCAD Technology Consortium updates IntelliCAD Mobile Platform:
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Opens and regenerates drawings using multiple threads
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Previews files before opening them
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Names views and visual styles
Mobile Platform is not a retail product but meant for ITC Mobile SIG members to distribute. As a CAD file viewer, it handles .dwg, .dxf, .dgn, .dwf, .dae, and image files; architecture and civil objects; and underlays, and runs on Windows, Android, macOS, and iOS. www.intellicad.org
Letters to the Editor
Re: What Remains to Be Solved in Mechanical CAD
Matt Lombard's article on the above topic is riveting, I read it in one swoop. What are your thoughts about how future developments will work out? Still via China?
- Name withheld by request
Canada
The editor replies: The amount being produced for us in China is so overwhelming that we cannot properly comprehend it. It is expensive to move production back to the West, and would take years to build the factories.
The related problem is that the West moved it factory pollution to China, so bringing factories back would shift the pollution back to our skies and waters.
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Matt Lombard wrote, “And when is A.I. going to show up, or do we not have the piles of unsorted data required to make A.I. successful?”
Amen to the second clause! That said, I find BricsCAD's Bimify and Blockify commands pretty awesome examples for A.I. in CAD/BIM.
- Michael Hasse
France
The editor replies: As impressive as commands like Bimify are, I don’t consider them A.I. but advanced forms of search and replace.
Re: The Complexity of Simplicity
I like this chapter/discussion. Let’s call this “smart stupidities”!
- Jure Spiler
Slovinia
Re: The reality of homelessness in cold weather
One of my brothers is one of those who will not live inside. He's been offered a brand new suite in condo towers for the “homeless” a number of times over the years, but prefers the mental and emotional peace he finds sleeping outside a church in the upper-middle class area we grew up in as kids.
I visit him every couple of days at a predetermined time and place to give him his allowance of funds to keep him fed and with smokes. With the recent very cold weather in Vancouver, there were a couple of times my fear of not seeing him alive arose, thinking he might have not made it through the frigid night, but he showed up with no mention of the cold.
He's 74 years old, so he’s done well to live this way for decades. He’s labeled as being homeless, but, in reality, his home is what we call the outside.
- Name withheld by request (via WorldCAD Access)
The editor replies: The inability to live inside four walls is a common among the homeless, which, I agree, would better be named “the houseless,” as they have a place they call home.
Volunteering at a cold weather shelter, I’ve seen people leave in the middle of a frigid night due to their anxiety of being inside. As they leave, we remind them to shelter from the wind in a doorway and to huddle with someone else.
Notable Quotable
"Metaverse: it’s the tech bro version of New Coke."
- David Burge (@iowahawkblog)
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