The annual COFES conference took place during the first weekend
of May, 2002, in Scottsdale AZ USA. COFES is short for "Congress on the
Future of Engineering Software" and as such is an intimate gathering of
"gray hairs" as well as representatives from MCAD and AEC vendors,
hardware vendors, and the media.
The
purpose for being at COFES is four-fold: (1) hear keynote speakers talk about
trends in technology and business; (2) come together in small groups to discuss
specific issues; (3) have time to meet with vendors individually; and (4) socialize
with like-minded folk.
This
intensive 2-1/2 day event takes place in the heavily irrigated artificially
green 40-acre hotel complex in Scottsdale. Peer through the 12-foot tall hedge
to see the dismal trailer park on the dusty dry dessert that makes up the real
Arizona.
Here then are some
notes I during the various keynotes and sessions I attended.
Keynote 1:
Eric Drexler "Bits
Atoms and Design"
http://www.foresight.org
The PPT [powerpoint slides] didn't work, which is probably just as well, because then we could concentrate on what he said, instead of on the screen behind him. Some quotes from his speech:
The natural limits to technological growth are physics. The
unchangeable laws of physics limit us. The good news, however, is that as tech
trends towards miniaturization, we use fewer resources.
Who
studies the limits of tech (applied science)? Not engineers, because they study
the limits of what is possible today. Not scientists, because they tend not
to study technology.
Nature
is telling us something: The limits could be bacteria, each one contains about
1MB of data in a form of non-volatile data that we today cannot access, read,
or write.
Switching from
digital to atomic, will be similar to the switch from analog to digital.
Think
of a generalized thing-making device that can reproduce itself and other objects.
An analogy in the three transitions in history of music: (1) Live players; (2)
Analog record players; and (3) Digital recording and playback. The transition
went from the specific (need a flute player, need a violin player) to the general
(MP3 handles any kind of data, music, movies, etc).
Keynote 2:
Michael Tanner
"Insider's Perspective on PLM"
http://www.chasmgroup.com/cofes
Shareholder value is what makes your company different from
others. A lower price, new product intro, and superior customer service do not
guarantee that you will remain an advantage.
CAP
is the "competitive advantage period" that asks what guarantee do
you have that you will do well tomorrow? Categories have valuations too. But
what do you do when your see your primary category commoditizing?
Four
major challenges are:
1. The Nasty Bit: The old paradigm loses value before
the new paradigm hasn't arrived yet. In CAD, the switch is from part-oriented
to data-oriented.
2. Category Consolidation: How quickly can PLM vendors
create a common platform for all apps?
3. Conflicting Structures:
Moving from selling boxes to selling solutions.
4. Re-integration of Services:
Product + Services = Solution
In summary, investors first invest in categories, and then in powerful companies.
Keynote 3:
Joel Orr "The
Design Dialectic: Getting from Dream to Reality."
For engineers, there is only one reality, and one truth. Unlike
post-modern philosophy, there isn't your reality and my reality.
Knowledge
moves forward in avalanches -- quiet periods followed by rushed changes.
Dealing with error:
Failure is not a disaster. Because you make more mistakes you are more likely to hit upon something that works.
The "under the tent" meeting place on the Terraza.
Seminar:
Dave Albert "Future
of CAD in Next Five Years"
Clients will force interoperability on CAD vendors. Even being
based on ParaSolid or ACIS will not be good enough. For example, Solid Edge
and SolidWorks both use ParaSolid, but the two products are in no way interchangeable.
For example, MCAD programs differ in as simple a concept as defining a hole
in a solid.
Mike Riddle
commented that "there is no interoperability problem if there is only
one 800-lb gorilla in the marketplace."
Interoperability
can happen. An example is UML (unified modeling language) that was created for
CASE (computer-aided software engineering). UML is a superset of all others.
Committee
approach doesn't work because they are not economically driven. In the case
of UML, it was one company hiring the best programmers and telling them to come
up with a language common to all competitors.
Interoperability
could be forced if the US government insisted on CAD vendors publishing their
file formats. While the US government agencies will be around 50 and 100 years
from now, most CAD vendors will not be, and the government wants to access drawings
for their subs, etc.
AEC Pundits Panel
Q: Why is the hand faster than computer - at least for initial design?
A: Command selection slows down the user.
A:
Sometimes we forget that hand processes are more effective than computer.
Q: Will the tablet PC make initial design faster?
A: No
A: Yes
A: Rethink the process:
consider the difference bet an 8-year-old child who draws castle (poorly) but
easily builds one from Lego.
A: Actually it depends on the person
how they prefer to create -- whether by clay, paint, pencil, cardboard. etc.
A:
With pencil we communicate with ourselves, with computer we communicate with
others.
Stand-up bar and appetizers preceding the final day's dinner.
Visiting with Vendors
In addition to talking about CAD (see upFront.eZine #294), the COFES (conference on the future of engineering software) gives time to meet with CAD vendors. <http://www.cofes.com>
Graphisoft showed me how the new Plan2Model 2D-to-3D
software works. Just like raster-to-vector software traces the raster dots to
determine vector lines, this software traces the 2D vector floorplan to recognize
patterns. It can convert item-by-item, or the entire drawing. It apparently
works with any orientation, and even mirrored objects. It does not, however,
handle slabs or roofs.
The
Conversion Manager defines objects, such as two parallel lines a certain distance
apart must be a walls; a square within a certain size is a column; and so on.
Objects identified as walls are given a height, such as 8 feet, making them
3D. In the Conversion Manager, you select an entity as a template, and then
assign drawing elements to the pattern. You can set up multiple libraries to
handle different drawing styles.
Graphisoft
sees Plan2Model as a method of bridging AutoCAD (for CAD) and ArchiCAD for facilities
management. http://www.graphisoft.com/plan2model
Expect ArchiCAD v8 this
fall.
The IAI showed me the Solibri model checker, which
imports an IFC building model. It performs constraint and rule checking, as
well as corrects layers and detects collisions. http://www.solibri.com
Members of the IAI's BLIS
initiative emphasized to me that IFCs are not for exchanging models between
CAD systems, but for analyzing models by exporting to products like Solibri.
http://www.iai-international.org
PTC showed me "Wildfire," the next release
of Pro/Engineer due out this fall. It may even retain the Wildfire name.
Wildfire
emphasizes ease of use, such as direct editing of dimensions. It'll be Web-connected,
and integrates a multi-page Web browser into the CAD product. http://www.ptc.com/company/mail/express200203/wildfire.htm
Timberline spent their 3/4-hour with me discussing
how they are expanding from "just" cost estimating to project management.
The tough part is that they are dealing with an industry (AEC) that doesn't
want integration –- they talked of the barriers between project managers and
accountants, for example.
Timberline
feels that integration will not happen soon, but that IFC and other standards
will fill the gap. XML is the best thing going for disconnected data systems,
and may even use it for passing data between Timberline software. http://www.timberline.com
Photo Gallery
I took these photos during COFES 2002 with a Canon G1 digital camera, and reduced the images from 2048x1536 to 640x480-resolution.
The beautiful Arizona desert at dusk.
The waxy yellow of a cactus flower.
Taking a look at the setting sun and sunspots through an 18" telescope.
A photomontage of Jupiter and Saturn
(taken through the telescope) and the Arizona night sky.
The bright
dot over the telescope is Jupiter as normally seen.
Given a choice between over or under exposure, choose under. Digital cameras have a remarkable ability to capture data, as the above pair of images show. The photo at right is the original; the photo at left was adjusted reducing the Highlight to 20% in PaintShop Pro. Here I am receiving the CAD Community Award from Evan Yares of The CAD Society.
Summary Session
Customers buy because of fashion, not because of technology.
To a company, its technology is unique, but to the customer it all looks the
same. You can't get rich saving money for the customers. Price for the
marketplace, not for value.
Barriers
to change: we are comfortable in the bubble we work in. The "Kulture"
of the community you live inhibits you from change. If you want a revolution,
give the people "rifles" -- ie, tools.
Groupthink:
people say they want change, but when they get into a group, their IQ
falls to their shoe size. Change is the expression of passion.
Books
to consider: "Innovator's Dilemma" and "The Diffusion of Innovation"
Interoperability in Practice
Bad interoperability is a problem, but companies don't know
how to measure it.
Define
the different levels of interoperability. The range is from simple viewers to
access to model features.
"Design
for Interoperability" means drawings are created so that models can be
exchanged. For example, not using variable radius fillets that might not be
recognized by another CAD vendors.
Collaborative Decision Making Process
Design is the development of information punctuated by decisions.
Acting as a team is not sufficient, instead the group must act like an orchestra
or dance team.
Rule: come
to a decision when 70% no longer object, and 100% commit to the decision.
Irony: participants were decrying the contractor walking around
the job site with a large roll of drawings under the arm -- yet session leaders
were walking around with large sheets of paper rolled under their arm, sheets
that contained the notes takes during these sessions.
In
this down-economic climate, the COFES folks worked extra hard to have a full
representation from vendors to ensure the economic viability of the event. There
will be a COFES 2003, 'though I have no details as yet.
Sunset at La Puesta del Sol ("setting
of the sun"), a reconstructed Spanish Mission
located on the Fort McDowell
Indian Reservation north of Phoenix AZ.