July 13, 2004
Issue
#394
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- - - C
O N T E N T S How
Many 3D Users? DWF
Q&A: And our Other Regular Columns. Write - - - Donate - - - Look for additional,
nearly-daily CAD commentary at our Weblog: (ADVERTISMENT) Updated and Expanded for AutoCAD 2004! Tailoring AutoCAD 2004 is the first book for AutoCAD 2004. Download as a 204-page e-book in PDF format (US$24.95) or on CD ($29.95). Covers all areas of customization, from changing the user interface to writing toolbar macros and LISP routines. Click here to sample preview pages and place your order.
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One fine day, we'll all abandon 2D CAD for the nirvana of three-dimension design. Our guess for the timeline is that it's roughly synonymous to that of voice input (replacing keyboards) and virtual reality (replacing LCD screens) -- the technology that's has been proven possible, but not paradigm-shiftingly compelling. Some say 3D is here now, because they see no point to 2D drafting. And, others because they want to sell you upgrades. Another point is that the software is capable. Solid Edge, for example, aggressively courts the 2D drafter by providing to-3D transition tools. Others, however, say 3D a decade away, including, surprisingly enough, the ceo of Autodesk. In conference calls with financial analysts, Autodesk holds out the carrot of increased future revenue from hoped-for upgrades by users to more-expensive 3D software. Another ten years. Who'd'a thunk? When we do think of 3D, we tend to think MCAD [mechanical CAD]. Curious, because the DTM [digital terrain mapping] branch of surveying was probably the first discipline to be wholly 3D. - - - The ceo of a smaller CAD-feeder company recently asked us, how many mechanical CAD users are there? [A "CAD-feeder" company is like a third-party developer, a company that provides add-on software.] We didn't know. Shortly thereafter, and to our relief, Terry Wohlers issued a press release, writing that Joe Greco had counted up 4.96 million mechanical CAD seats. That number has caveats attached. It totals commercial + education seats worldwide, at the end of 2003. The number is limited to the larger vendors. (Left out were Alibre, KeyCreator-nee-CADKEY, OneSpace Designer, IronCAD, thinkdesign, VX CAD/CAM, Cobalt/Vellum Solids, and a whole bunch of others.) As a teaser, the press release lists the Top Seven MCAD products -- but in commercial seats only, leaving out education seats. The Top 7 are:
[Um, aren't Mechanical Desktop and Inventor sold as one product?] Want more results? You'll need to purchase the 270-page "Wohlers Report 2004" (US$425-$445) from http://wohlersassociates.com - - - After posting the above item at our Weblog, we heard from another analysis company. Nick Ballard of Cambashi wrote, "In the interest of balance, I must add our analysis to the melting-pot. We track all the company announcements and compile estimates based on revenue streams and trends on new seats sold and total licenses -- both commercial and educational. "If we look at the active commercial base (those actually paying maintenance and using the product) and exclude educational seats, (which account for up to 60% of some vendor-claimed installed bases), we come up with a very different number -- 1.172 million active commercial 3D seats, with the following breakdown:
"We try to take account of retirements, replacements, and other factors which also have a bearing on that number -- like upgrade cycles, vendor financial performance, and replacement offers and programs -- rather than simply add up all the sales ever made of any system." Cambashi is at http://www.cambashi.com - - - So there you have the definitive answer: somewhere between one and five million 3D MCAD users. DWF
Q&A: Autodesk made good on its promise to add 3D to DWF [design Web format], with the latest version of its DWF Viewer in beta and due to be available for free download in the next couple of days. When Amar Hanspal called last week from Autodesk to talk about not-a-closed-system-from-which-we-gain-competitive-advantage DWF, we ask, What follows 3D? "Speed, accuracy, and smartness," he replies.
Right now, the DWF Viewer (for viewing and printing) and DWF Composer (for redlining and document assembly) are not being released at the same time. Over time, Mr Hanspal reports, the two will coordinate releases. DWF Writer isn't getting any more major releases, just bug fixes, such as making sure fonts, text, and raster images are handled correctly. Autodesk speaks of the "millions" of customers using DWF, a number we place in quotation marks, because the DWF Viewer is free -- free to download and included free with AutoCAD. A better number, we suggest, is the number of DWF Composers licensed, because it's not free. At some point in the future, Autodesk will release that number. There is also the DWF API Kit, which lets other software work with DWF files. I asked how many competitors (who support DWF) are using this kit from Autodesk. A mixture: some do, others use APIs from others. Mr Hanspal said he's offered to help other CAD vendors implement DWF, but his offer has not been taken up. Right now, it's just OCE and HP who work closely with Autodesk. Seminars & Conference The first conference for application developers interested in IntelliCAD is Sept 16-17 in Denver CO USA. [I've been invited to speak at this event.] www.regonline.com/13406
Brand New CAD Books/eBooks 'Product
Lifecycle Management: Paradigm for 21st century Product Realisation" For
more info, or to order online: WorthWhile Web http://www.engadget.com/entry/1512853439674831/
Letters to the Editor Reader Request "Is
there a good teaching book really explains in DETAIL the ins and
outs of Bentley's new V8.5 3D? We have never used the 3D feature
in the program and wish to now use it in some new machine design
work. We have some books by Frank Conforti and yourself, but are
any of them up-to-date and deal with 3D, or is there a better book?" - - - Re: Extreme Makeover Home Edition "In
New Zealand we have a TV program called 'My House My Castle,' a
house makeover series. We produce animations and images for them
to show the transformation. All done in ArchiCAD and rendered in
Studio Max." The editor replies: "This is a chance for a clever CAD vendor to get tv exposure for the software we all use, but that nobody else knows about." - - - Re: Calma, Medusa, Uni-Graphics "Calma was one of the very first ever CAD companies, started by Cal and Erma Hefti (from which the name was derived). Started in the 60s. It was originally software for PCB design, and went thru several iterations. The PCB portion got sold off and the rest to GE. "At the time that Prime bought Calma from GE, they had 800 employees and 40 offices around the world selling two product lines: DDM and Dimensions 3. DDM was a 3D MCAD software that had a pretty good following including GE Aircraft Engines and Holland Tractors. Dimensions 3 was an outstanding 3D plant design software that claimed Fluor plus large shipbuilders and others as customers. "The software ran on UNIX boxes, primarily
the Apollo. After the first good year as part of Computervision,
when Calma was run as a separate business unit, the DDM portion
was merged in with CV's CADDS5 software, and the DDM users were
strong-armed to migrate. CV continued to run the Dimensions 3 plant
software for a while. I lost track of when it was finally abandoned."
"Prime Computer was sold to Computervision
in mid 90ties. Computervision was later sold to PTC, and PTC sold
Medusa. Medusa is still making a very good business in Europe, and
the far east. The Medusa CAD system is now owned by a German company
named CAD Schrøer in Moers, Germany. Medusa is still one of the
hardest competitors to AutoCAD on the 2D side."
"Where Are They Now? McDonnell Douglas
Automation Company (McAuto), Computer Integrated Manufacturing Technologies
Company (CIMTECH), Manufacturing Industry Systems Company (MISCO),
McDonnell Douglas Manufacturing and Engineering (MD-M&E), Integrated
Systems Company - Manufacturing and Engineering (ISC-M&E), McDonnell
Douglas Systems Integration (MDSI), EDS_UG, Unigraphics Solutions,
UGS, EDS PLM Solutions, UGS PLM Solutions, and now UGS." - - - Re: Bentley Research Seminar "I was as amazed as Richard Morse about 'tectonic shifts'. Unfortunately the piece attributed to me wasn't the piece I sent Ralph. The correct piece can be found at www.bentleyuser.org/LarsWord/larsJun2004.htm (The piece quoted in upFront was actually penned by the redoubtable Robert Aish as an introduction to the Research Seminar and published under my byline on bentleyuser.org.) "However the thesis that CAD will change the construction industry as fundamentally as it already has Hollywood, cars, and aeroplane design (not to mentioned having spawned a completely new industry -- games) is one I agree with. When reality becomes a subset of virtual reality, is that not pretty fundamental? "And the truth is that foot soldiers
don't see the point of the war; it's all drudgery. But there may
be a noble cause." Spin Doctor of the Moment "We're seeing a totally alien surface."
Notable Quotable "Taking all of the roads, parking lots,
buildings, etc. in the contiguous states together amounts to an
area about the size of the state of Ohio." |
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