issue
#325
27 January 2003
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a l k i n g a b o u t c a d
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issue
#325
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Contents Phantasmagoric
Profit Prophesies Problematic Readers
React 3: Below
the Radar, - - - - - -
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Phantasmagoric Profit Prophesies Problematic Some of the world's largest corporations are no longer providing quarterly profit guidance, including AT&T, McDonalds, Gillette, Coca-Cola, and USA Networks. The problem with guidance, explains Barry Diller, chairman of USA Networks, is that it "has created its own sophisticated art form [which] ... is becoming at best a distraction from the real work of a company." "Guidance lets the stupidest analysts look just as smart as the smartest analyst. It's a shortcut for lazy analysts," complains Alice Schroeder of Morgan Stanley. Trying to meet self-imposed profit expectations predicted three months or a year earlier leads to balance-sheet fiddling, adds Mathew Ingram of Report on Business. With CAD vendors struggling financially, will they too start giving up on phantasmagoric profit prophesies? As an example of the problem, let's look at the history of Autodesk's guidance for the current fiscal year (FY03):
The four revenue projections changed by $226.9 million (24%) in ten months. I'm not picking on Autodesk; the problem affects all public companies. As AT&T and other corporations have figured out, it might be better to not create expectations in the first place. Less work; less disappointment.
Readers React
3: "I read with interest readers comments to Carol's keynote address at Autodesk University, particularly in regard to our vision for digital design data. Some of the content seems to indicate the customers believe that we are disregarding the usefulness of paper or blueprints in the construction process. We don't -- in fact, we have designed DWF to be a view, print, and Web-ready format so someone can just hit the print button and get a properly scaled plot. "While paper is certainly a very easy format to work with for many purposes, the strength of digital formats lie in their ability to do more -- for example, DWF is designed to be archived and searchable. It is also designed to be transported at much faster rates than paper or even DWG files -- and in construction, time is money." - Amar Hanspal,
senior director of engineering - - - "I'd like to add a few thoughts to the paper-vs-digital discussion. Remember that the CAD file is a design format with all the discrete CAD objects, whereas a plot is simply an image of a view of the design. Are your other readers commenting about preserving the plot or the design data? The former can be preserved in either paper or digital, the latter only digital. "So, the issue is, will the CAD formats become obsolete? That is, will old versions of DWG for example, be readable into the distant future? Most likely, yes. Thus, for preservation, it's probably a good idea to keep a plot file along with your original drawing file for archive. Use a 'standard' format; PDF is a safe bet. "I would bet that PDF interpreters will never go away, because even if PDF viewers stop being ported to future platforms, there will always be x86 emulators to run the 'old' PDF viewers and old files (e.g. MAME/MESS can now run everything from PacMan to Atari to TRS80 to GameBoy). But (once the dust settles, that is, a standard emerges), an XML-based vector format will be better, as it'll be open and text based. (Just be sure to keep the namespace dictionary file around, too) so any future programmer can retrieve the data directly." - Jonathan
Linowes The editor notes: "MAME/MESS is the 'multiple arcade machine emulator' <http://www.mame.net/ > and 'multi emulator super system' <http://www.overclocked.org/emumess.htm >. There's even game emulators for a limited number of digital cameras at <http://digita.mame.net/reviews.htm >." - - - "I'm all for keeping drawings/data digital. I'd also like to experience zero gravity, but we're not there yet." - Ryan Truair - - - "While the CAD industry certainly wants all-digital design processes, one only need attend a single liability arbitration in the US AEC or mechanical markets to realize that lawyers make us use paper. In fact, we have more paper now than before the CAD revolution, and the legal system is the reason. It may be that the less litigious societies will leapfrog the US in design technologies precisely because they don't have to deal with overbearing legal costs." - Robert Green - - - "Can it be true that people don't realize just how valuable design data is in electronic form? They are looking for monitors the size of paper sheets. We are seeing the continued belief that CAD is nothing more than an electronic T-square -- CAD is far more, and folks need to realize that! Whether for visualization or volumetrics, whether a 2D 'dumb' drawing or a 3D 'intelligent' model, virtually all CAD files are too valuable to be just potential prints. Here are some examples:
"When will the AEC industry catch up?" - Joe Tilman - - - "I follow comments of late with curious interest. Seems like every time I hear this take place, I think of telephones. The information that was transmitted over phones in the past is now lost; we know its value is temporary. If we need to keep that information, we demand the business be recorded in writing, on paper. What is on paper rarely exactly duplicates the verbal conversation. Through experience, we have developed ways of understanding how a verbal conversation will be translated into a written document. Sometimes, as in the case of some legal documents (such as property surveys, for example) we even have to have a verbal conversation to translate a written document back into something we can understand. "Paper in the building industry has been used to communicate the intent of the designer to the persons constructing the building. What if that wasn't necessary? What if the 'dozer that moves dirt didn't have to have a person operating it, but received digital data from a wireless device telling the 'dozer where to cut, and where to fill? Would paper be necessary in this case? "Are there similar situations in the construction industry? Is there a way for the digital data to follow completely through the design, life, operation, and demise of the facility such that there is a greater value to society? "It's always amazed me that the telecommunications industry has been able to develop standards which allow all instruments involved to communicate with each other. Interesting to imagine what it would be like if CAD systems actually _could_!" - Merle Hall,
Facilities Information Manager - - - "I keep seeing references to PDF in upFront. Why the interest? PDF is not, nor can it ever be, a replacement for DWG, DGN, etc. PDF is a print control language, just like HPGL/2 or PostScript. Well, PDF does have a lot of chrome, stuff like forms, Web integration, and multimedia. But for CAD users, a PDF file is functionally equivalent to a plot file. "Just like plot files, PDF files have all the 'CADness' removed, including scale, dimensions, precision, layers, and associativity. So, other than making pretty pictures, how exactly do people intend to use PDF?" - Jason Osgood The editor replies: "You're right: PDF is good as a plot file format, with the added benefit that probably every computer in the world (as well as PalmOS handhelds) can display PDF files due to the ubiquitous nature of Acrobat."
Below the Radar A summary of CAD industry news you may not have read elsewhere, or that I found interesting: - - - EVOQE is shipping solidThinking 5.1 for Windows and Mac in three varieties: LT (US$495), DESIGN ($2,745), and VANTAGE ($4,995). http://www.solidthinking.com/products/comparative_table.htm Autodesk reported a total of 3,248 registered attendees for its 10th annual Autodesk University event. [Add that number to Bentley's BIUC event, and just two CAD products are equal to AEC Systems and its "slightly more than 5,000" attendees.] CADKEY's new Workshop EX (US$6,000) uses ACIS translators from Spatial to import/export CATIA 4, import Pro/E, and import Unigraphics. http://www.cadkey.com/webstore GiveMePower's PowerCAD CE 5.2 is now shipping for running CAD on PocketPC handhelds. http://www.givemepower.com/powercadce_features.html NavisWorks 2.4 adds support for SolidWorks 2003, CADPIPE 7, and CAD-Duct, as well as improvements to DGN. Price is free to NavisWorks Bond members (annual fee starts at 15% of product purchase price). http://www.navisworks.com/what_is_navisworks.htm ManufacturingQuote says that its MfgQuote Network <http://www.mfgquote.com > site has registered more than 10,000 buyers and engineers since launching two years ago. Plot2PDF (US$1152) converts DWG, DXF, HPGL, HP-GL/2, and CGM files into PDF and DWF formats. Download a trial version from http://www.softcover.com [I announced it once before, but now it is shipping.]
Seminars & Conferences daratechSUMMIT2003 is Feb 17-19, 2003 at the Sheraton New York NY USA. http://www.daratech.com/summit2003/timetable.html
New Newsletters/Webzines The German language 'AutoCAD Magazin' is celebrating its 15th anniversary. [This is, I believe, the only AutoCAD-specific magazine left in the world.]
People/Companies on the Move Autodesk named Chris Bradshaw as vp of its GIS division. Mr Bradshaw was most recently vp of Autodesk's Building Collaboration Services. Macromedia appointed Dominic Gallello as executive vp. Mr Gallello is the former ceo of RedSpark, an Autodesk spin-off. AppIQ, a maker of storage management software, appointed David Lemont as its new president and ceo. Mr Lemont was previously ceo of Revit Technology. Softline Software recruited Michael DeBarros as sales and marketing vp of its Business Vision group. Mr DeBarros was formerly a channel director at Autodesk. He takes the place of David Dierke, who now heads up the Accountmate group. Mr Dierke also worked for Autodesk earlier in his career.
Computer News Summaries Microsoft says Visio now has seven million users. New customers get a US$50 discount when purchasing Visio 2002 from Amazon.com.
Market News Intergraph Canada acquired Pelican Forge Software of Canada. The company develops SupportModeler software for detail design of process plant and offshore platform pipe supports. The purchase price was not announced. The upFront.eZine stock index is at www.cadwire.net/to?upfrontezine/stocks
BrandNew CAD Books "Distributed
and Integrated Collaborative Engineering Design" For more info, or to purchase online: www.amazon.com
"How
To Double Your SolidWorks Productivity" For more info, or to purchase online: www.stethour.com/doubleswx/
Notable Quotable "After some time in critical condition, and despite heroic efforts to revive it, the hard drive on my iBook expired last week at the age of 14 months. The passing claimed scores of MP3s, hundreds of digital photographs, and thousands of e-mail messages, many of them unread and still more unanswered -- one of which held the promise of considerable financial compensation in return for my 'kindly assistance' with a 'secured uninquired deposit' in Sierra Leone. Rats. A sweet offer like that is never going to come my way again." - Scott Feschuk |
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