issue
#305
20 august 2002
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a l k i n g a b o u t c a d
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issue
#305
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Contents
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Air travel: Either you're killing time, or else you're killing yourself trying to be on-time. On the plane to Nashville, I'm reading 'Red Herring,' August issue, "Is Our Children Learning?" I agree with the contention that it is dubious that computers in schools are helping children learn (identified, presumably, by higher marks), despite the self-serving studies generated by hardware and software vendors. Kids are make nicer reports with fine-looking fonts and color images stolen off the Internet, but they are learning only how to use software, how to type, and how to replace the public library with Google -- not learning better. The hundreds of millions overspent on computers would be better spent on smaller class sizes. We land in Nashville during a lightning storm; I'm glad my will and life insurance are up-to-date. Our hotel is across the street from the Vanderbilt University <http://www.vanderbilt.edu/ >, whose 10,000 students pay a typical US$38,000 a year tuition and fees, according to the Grayline van driver who's gone into sing-song mode describing city features for his two tourist passengers. The newly renovated Loews Vanderbilt hotel <http://www.loewshotels.com/hotels/nashville/default.asp > uses generic labeling: the restaurant is called Eat; the bar Drink. Soap is labeled Clean. I wasn't sure which of the four bottles was the shampoo, but finally guessed it must be the one also labeled Clean. The towels, however, are labeled Loews Hotel. The bottled water is not complimentary, but US$4.95. - - - The Press Conference Autodesk flew journalists to Nashville for a press conference to show off Inventor 6, Streamline 4, and customers using Inventor. One of Autodesk's visions for Inventor is "the mainstream adoption of the full product model," which includes full design capture and authoring for up- and downstream processes. Robert Kross vp of mechanical market group told us that Autodesk has an "open business model" to work with other vendors in those areas where Autodesk does not yet have software, such as model analysis. Note the "not yet" qualifier; Mr Kross says Autodesk will be aggressive in acquiring additional MCAD capabilities -- does this mean the business model will become increasingly closed? Future directions will include collaborative engineering and life cycle management. Of 3,000 Inventor Series (a bundle that includes Mechanical 2D, Mechanical Desktop 3D, and Inventor) customers who answered Autodesk's survey, 54% were using Inventor in production, 10% were not using it, and 36% were testing in pilot projects. Autodesk was asked about "3rd-party lag," the lag between a new release of Inventor and when third-party apps are updated. The delay should be minimized because the API does not change -- it just gets added to. What about the education market? Autodesk has created a curriculum, and does not intend to "seed" colleges with software. - - - Inventor 6 Inventor is Autodesk's mid-range 3D mechanical CAD software. This next release of Inventor is said to have over 200 enhancements, necessitating a press release running five pages. Despite the largess, not much time was spent demo'ing to the software to us, much to my disappointment. Perhaps a number of features were not ready for public showing. Autodesk will continue its all-but-the-kitchen-sink approach, adding features to Inventor itself rather than through modules, as it has been doing with AutoCAD. Some of the new features are called "shape description tools" and mix solids with surfaces. Mr Kross says he is proudest of surface/solids integration: tools for both look the same. Autodesk's ShapeManager kernel allows manipulations such as loft with rails, embossed text, parametric delete face or lump, and replace face. Some of the features demo'ed were weldments, BOM as-an-object, and creating a plastic case by apparently effortless switching between solids and surface modeling. Not demo'ed for us was 3D routing for tubes, wires, and so on. To go one better than SolidWorks' floor shadow, Inventor now has a variable-density shadow. What's next, a mirror? Release date is during October this year <http://www.autodesk.com/inventor >. Registration for the beta program began July 24 at http://betaprograms.autodesk.com/betaweb.htm - - - Streamline 4 Streamline has been re-built on ProjectPoint technology, which Autodesk acquired from its re-acquisition of Buzzsaw. Streamline is software for shared viewing and markup of Inventor, MDT, and now AutoCAD models over the Internet. Release 4 is available now, with the behind-the-firewall edition in September. New features include: move components around (and click Reset Position to return); edge highlighting and texture mapping; create DWP files (Streamline Drawing Package); and more. Some customers are uncomfortable with Autodesk storing their drawings, which is the point to Streamline. So the company (1) is making Streamline 4 available for local installation; and (2) spent US$30 million on a secure facility that stores your data with hourly data backups archived in three locations. The site has food and supplies to survive a disaster for six weeks. Streamline is the closest Autodesk seems to be getting to document management. In answer to a question, the company said it might get back into document management -- or might not (after being burned by the failure of WorkCenter and its corporate successor Motiva). Similarly, Autodesk feels that customers --and hence Autodesk -- are not interested in PLM, at least not today. When Inventor customers attending the event were asked about PLM, the response was: "PLM?" <http://www.autodesk.com/streamline > - - - Q & A Reaction to certain questions was interesting, such as the ones Autodesk was not keen to answer. The analyst from IDG, for example, asked about competitors, and after some urging got this response: 1. SolidWorks, 2. CATIA v5, and 3. replacing existing installations of Pro/E. Including CATIA raised some eyebrows, because it hadn't been mentioned by Autodesk before. A sales graph displayed during the event showed Inventor sales soaring above those of SolidWorks. The graph had to be viewed with two caveats: it showed quarterly sales, not total seats; it showed sales of "AIS" (Autodesk Inventor Series), the package that includes Mechanical Desktop, et al. Autodesk claims to be "far exceeding the seats sold by any other 3D modeler on the market for three consecutive quarters." Reading press releases from SolidWorks and Autodesk, however, shows quarterly numbers to be more of a tie: Q SW AIS An important question still not answered by Autodesk is: "How many?" The assumption is that Autodesk will not announce total Inventor seats until the number exceeds SolidWorks'. My estimate is that 68,000 seats of Inventor have been sold as of the end of July, compared with 188,000 of SolidWorks. VP Kross hopes his MCAD division one day generates as much revenue as all of Autodesk duz today ($1b). Last quarter, MCAD revenues were US$33.7 million, so the division has yet to grow 30x. - - - Customer Site Visit During the afternoon, we headed out to RTS Wright Industries, a company that makes the machinery that lets other companies make parts -- from airbag canisters to riding lawnmower parts to cluster bombs. You know those small plastic cylinders that hold moisture absorbers? RTS built a machine that spits out 1,200 of them every minute. RTS started with MicroStation in the 1980s "because it was the best there was at the time." For 3D modeling, they added SolidWorks in the 1990s. At some point they switch from uStn to AutoCAD, and then decided to standardize on Autodesk software, hence Inventor. The added benefit was that the firm's engineers could get working on Inventor after a couple of days; no need to hire engineers trained specifically with Inventor. We were impressed by the 200,000 sq.ft.'s cleanliness, spaciousness, and air conditioning. Numerous projects were curtained off due to confidentially agreements with clients. Indeed, some clients just flash the proposed item just long enough for a glimpse, and then ask for a quote. Some items need round-the-clock security, such as the blanks for punching the new American 'state' quarters. This company is one that would be at the leading edge of an economic recovery. We asked, "Is a recovery happening?" Yes, but very slowly. - - - Leaving Nashville It's time to leave Nashville; at the airport, the rain is heavy, the lightning strikes are frequent, and the power goes out a few times briefly before the emergency power kicks in. I ask the pilot waiting for our flight if lightning affects takeoffs. "No, only if it hits the aircraft," is his reassuring reply. By the time the SkyWest/United Express flight leaves 35 minutes late, the storm is gone. My seatmate on the cramped Challenger short-haul jet is furious: the airline had earlier broken her notebook computer and was denying responsibility. "They can't afford it, I guess," I commiserated, snapping apart the folding keyboard for my Sony Clie. Her eye widened: "That's what I need for my Palm! No more notebook computer." I spent the remainder of the flight writing this report. - - - Photo Gallery Leaving my home town of Abbotsford in the Fraser Valley: http://www.upfrontezine.com/travel/ntn-01.jpg At Loews hotel, verbs become nouns: http://www.upfrontezine.com/travel/ntn-02.jpg An interesting facade for a nearby restaurant: http://www.upfrontezine.com/travel/ntn-03.jpg The rain at Nashville airport: http://www.upfrontezine.com/travel/ntn-04.jpg
Autodesk Conference Call "Well kids, we are now in the sixth quarter of saying the
tech turnaround is only two quarters away." - - - "Customers are holding back," says Autodesk, and so its revenue outlook for this fiscal year has fallen to US$860-$900 million. This is a big drop from:
AutoCAD sales fell to $103 million, down from $111 million in the previous quarter, and from $119 million a year earlier. The MCAD division did well because its sales were flat at $33 million compared with the previous quarter, and up 21% from a year earlier. An analyst wanted separate numbers for Inventor's upgrade and new sales, but Autodesk would not provide them. Only Asia-Pacific showed an increase in sales. Details here: http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/NSD/ADSK/reports Other highlights from the Q2 FY03 conference call Autodesk held with financial analysts last week: The next major release of AutoCAD will be in Q1 next year (Feb-Apr). Expect Revit v5 before the end of October this year, which will feature improved DWG-read. An analyst asked, when will Revit supersede Architectural Desktop? Autodesk responded with two answers: "Customers will dictate it," and "The future is Revit." Subscription contracts account for nearly 60% of US$74 million in deferred revenue; that translates (very roughly) into 30,000 subscribers. Autodesk promises to announce actual numbers at the end of this year. The subscription program for Asia-Pacific has been delayed until 2003 pending implementation of new software for tracking subs. An analyst asked: is subscription income impacting negatively on quarterly revenue? Autodesk expects that upgrade revenue will eventually disappear as "everyone" is on subscriptions [scary thought]. A soft real estate market is making it difficult for Autodesk to sell or sub-lease office space it no longer needs. After hiring a net of 9 employees in Q2, Autodesk will lay off 7% of its workforce of 3,715 -- most in Q3. Autodesk still has $407 million in cash. - - - AG Edwards reduced ADSK stock from from a Strong Buy to a Hold. MorningStar's analysis: "Although we expected the company to reduce expectations, the revised numbers are lower than we anticipated. The stock will probably trade down on this news, but we remain convinced it is undervalued on the basis of projected cash flows. While tough IT spending conditions will continue to take a toll, we expect business to improve in the coming months on the heels of new versions of two flagship products, Inventor and AutoCAD." - http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/020816/79616_2.html
Readers Like Numbers I usually guess wrong at which story will interest readers the most. From last week's issue, Intel's attempt to create a standard 3D file format for the Web was a yawner. "That would be consistent with what I observed on the CAD 3D working group mailing list archive at Web3D.org. The only email message was that from the person creating the list -- the venerable 'hello world'," a spokesman for one CAD company NOT involved with the standard told me. Readers were, however, fascinated by the number reported by SolidWorks:
"It could be a dangerous assumption [you made] re: educational
seats not included with commercial seat total. I thought that some
software vendors gifted their software to educational institutes
to help promote commercial sales. I haven't a clue if this is a
practice followed by SolidWorks." The editor replies: "If software is given to an educational
institute free, does that count as a sale? It does count as a seat.
"The IT [information technology] industry has a terrible
history for misleading customers (i.e. Y2K, Web or bust, best upgrade
ever,...). It would be good for all IT vendors to present the 'straight'
goods. But then again, I guess that might take out some of the fun
in reporting the news." "SolidWorks seem to use one set of numbers, whilst Dassault
use another. I have added up all the SolidWorks numbers from Dassault
annual reports, press releases, etc. -- these come to 119,618 up
to FY02 end, which of course implies that they have at least 80,000
educational users. The editor replies: "My analysis of historical numbers estimates that 40%-45% of SolidWorks' seats are educational. OTOH, Autodesk doesn't break down its quarterly figures of Inventor, whether educational, upgrades, new seats, or give-aways to MDT subscribers."
"I think you left out a factor of 2 (i.e., 8 seats per site
x 25000 would be 200,000). The editor replies, "We in the e-newsletter business are similarly fascinated by the subscriber numbers claimed by competitors. Does the number represent actual subscribers, estimated readers, or total circulation?"
below the radar A summary of CAD industry news you may not have read elsewhere, or that I find interesting: Alibre had its STEP (STandard for the Exchange of Product
model data) schema published by the ISO. Alibre uses STEP as the
internal file format for its Alibre Design 3D CAD application; the
application does not use a proprietary file format, as do most other
CAD packages. Alibre's STEP schema adds a complete product model
definition to the A203 standard, including features, construction
history, parameters, and relationships, as well as non-graphical
meta data, such as part name, number, description and version. Informatix Software International says it will begin shipping MicroGDS v7.1 in August. http://www.informatix.co.uk Easy-D offers high-quality standardized CAD details at no cost, after registration. http://www.easy-d.com/ ZEHRaster Plus is being included with HP's Designjet copier cc800p. The UNIX and Windows printing software accesses and prints many file formats. http://hp.zeh.com/ Bentley Systems has updated its GeoGraphics mapping and geospatial add-on for MicroStation V8. It is free to Bentley SELECT subscribers using MicroStation. http://www.bentley.com/geo Intergraph Mapping and GIS Solutions is shipping of GeoMedia Transaction Manager v5.0 for long-term transaction, versioning, and temporal data management using Oracle9i. http://www.intergraph.com/gis CValley's CAD plug-in software for Adobe Illustrator is now compatible with Illustrator 10 on Mac OSX. It includes BluePrintTools-Pro (US$90) and EXDXF-Pro (US$90). http://www.cvalley.com/ Tailor Made Software announced AutoXchange v8.5 (US$3,995 - $4,995), its software for converting DWG and DXF files to many CAD and vector formats. The new release supports SVG export, hierarchical assemblies, PDF watermarks, and AutoCAD standard views. Available for Windows and Unix/Linux. http://www.cadviewer.com Nemetschek North America advises users of VectorWorks products to avoid updating to MacOS X v10.2 (a.k.a. Jaguar) until it can identify workarounds for problems created by changes in Jaguar, and release a compatibility update. VectorWorks v9.5.2 products and MacOS X v10.1.5 continue to work together.
seminars and conferences 3D on the Web & Beyond is being held Oct 16-17 in San Jose CA USA. http://www.acaciarg.com/products/events/web2002/web2002prog.htm
New Newsletters/Webzines John Powell tells me that the next issue of 'The CAD Compass' is coming out at the end of this month, titled "Case Studies in Collaboration." The spirit of 'The CAD Compass' has been to promote Best Practices in the use of CAD. The 'AECVision Magazine' Webzine is closing down with its July/August issue. The related AECCafe Web site continues to provide daily news services and other features. Back issues available at http://www.aecvision.com. Editor-in-chief Susan Smith <susith@aol.com > intends to stay in our industry. The Society of Manufacturing Engineers has re-designed its 'Manufacturing Engineering' magazine for metalworking and manufacturing. The 70-year-old magazine has a circulation of 110,000. http://www.sme.org/cgi-bin/find-issues.pl?&&ME&SME&
People/Companies on the Move Alex Neihaus resigned from Autodesk as senior director of marketing of the building industry division. Until a replacement is found, former Revit ceo Dave Lemont is managing the BID marketing group. Cyco Software appointed Cathi Ham to the position of channel manager. Ms Ham was a former sales executive with Revit Technology. Synaps appointed Kenneth Shain to the position of vp of sales and marketing. In his previous position, Mr. Shain launched the North American business unit for MENSI; prior to that, he was ceo of Cyco Software. Entrada Software announced that Debra Henry has joined as vp of marketing and communications. Ms Henry was previously with Avnet Inc.'s Hall-Mark Division. Avatech Solutions reorganized its sales and marketing teams from being organized according to geographic locations, to being organized by markets: Manufacturing; Emerging and Strategic Markets (GIS, document management, training, and government); and AEC. The company considers Autodesk and Cyco Software its key partners. Tech Ed Concepts was awarded a five-year contract to supply DataCAD architectural design software and materials to 78 United States Department of Defense schools worldwide for students in grades five through eight. JETCAM International Holdings announced a collaboration with BrightCAM Solutions to form JETCAM Americas Inc.
Redo Autodesk is not a member of OpenHSF, as reported last week.
Computer News Summaries A group of PC owners has filed a class action lawsuit against Intel, Gateway, and Hewlett-Packard alleging the companies misled them into believing the Pentium 4 was a superior processor to the Pentium III and AMD's Athlon. - http://www.pcworld.com/news/article Market research firm IDC says Linux sales declined by 5% in 2001 to US$80 million, while Windows sales grew 11% to US$10 billion. Analyst Al Gillen says, "On the second day of January, Microsoft had generated more operating system revenue than the Linux community [does for the entire year]." He expects Linux revenues to grow as vendors, such as Red Hat, make it more difficult to obtain the software for free. IDC did not report on the number of Linux copies shipped. - CNET
Market News "Software is becoming the oil of the 21st century, the difference
being that this time the scarcity is entirely artificial. People
are acutely aware that Microsoft and friends have as much power
over them right now as OPEC had over people in the 1970s -- and
that makes them nervous."
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